Morgan Stanley Sees Copper at $14,800 as 80% of Global Visible Inventories Pile Up in the US

Key takeaways Morgan Stanley forecasts copper averaging $14,800 this quarter Nearly 80% of visible inventories sit in America Chinese premiums signal tightening supplies outside US warehouses Copper prices climbed above $14,250 per metric ton on November 2 as Morgan Stanley forecast further gains, warning that global inventories are becoming increasingly concentrated in the United States while supplies elsewhere remain tight. The bank expects copper to average $14,800 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, approximately 3. 9% above Monday's London Metal Exchange price of $14,251.

According to Dow Jones reporting, approximately 80% of visible global copper inventories are now held in the United States, creating regional shortages despite substantial worldwide stockpiles. Why Copper Supplies Are Tight Despite Record US Inventories Copper's supply problem increasingly concerns location rather than the total amount available worldwide. American warehouses have accumulated enormous inventories as traders position metal ahead of potential import tariffs.

That strategy removes supplies from markets requiring immediate physical deliveries. Coinpaper previously examined this contradiction in its report on 700,000 tons of copper held in US warehouses. Reuters reported that COMEX inventories exceeded 726,000 metric tons in late October, while Chinese buyers faced increasingly expensive physical imports.

The Yangshan copper premium reached approximately $205 per ton on October 28, its highest level in more than a decade. Such premiums reflect what buyers pay above benchmark prices to secure physical deliveries, illustrating regional shortages that headline inventory figures may conceal. The rally has also increased the metal value of US nickels beyond their face value.

Can Copper Break $15,000 as Mine Disruptions Continue? Supply constraints extend beyond warehouse inventories. Chile has experienced operational disruptions and weaker production, while maintenance at Chinese smelters and limited scrap availability have added pressure to refined copper supplies.

Institutional forecasts remain optimistic. Goldman Sachs expects copper to reach $14,700 by year-end and average $15,400 in 2027. J.

P. Morgan separately forecasts a fourth-quarter average of $14,800. The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure offers another demand catalyst because data centers require extensive electrical equipment, wiring and power connections.

Recent Amazon AI investments demonstrate the scale of infrastructure spending, although those expenditures do not directly measure copper consumption. However, Morgan Stanley expects prices to moderate toward a $14,400 average in early 2027 as tariff uncertainty and possible production recovery influence markets. A reversal in US import incentives could also release stored copper back into international markets.

Meanwhile, the recent AI stock selloff raises questions about the sustainability of infrastructure spending.